Coronavirus Thread

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crank
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by crank » 17 Mar 2020, 17:36

Here's the thing about the political nature of this situation... it isn't political unless you make it political. Little could be done sooner because the virus has/had not yet arrived in most areas of the country. This virus has to run its course, as I'm given to understand. Going on lock-down would not have stopped the virus. The aim of this 'social distancing' and current restrictions is to flatten out the peak infections. That is, instead of having everyone get sick all at once and overwhelm medical resources, the infection is slowed but the pandemic (the crisis) lasts longer.

Go ahead! Make it political if you must. If Trump had told everyone to panic, he would have been criticized for inciting panic. When has a president EVER told the citizens of the United States to panic? When would that ever be a good idea? Remember the famous FDR quote, “The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself”? The thing about politics is this... if this or any President makes any decision about anything, about half of the people looking on will criticize that decision. "Don't panic..." results in critics saying he didn't know what he was talking about and wrongly downplayed it. When he banned travel from Europe, critics insisted it was racist. If he had locked down the country as is being done in Italy, he would have been called a dictator abusing his power. If you're inclined to make it political, you will find something. Please stop. It is not productive or helpful.

I have clients who are healthcare providers. They have explained the goals and timing of the current actions and made recommendations to me to avoid making people sick while allowing us to continue earning a living. There are currently NO CONFIRMED CASES in the area where I live but there will be soon despite the fact schools have closed, large gatherings are banned and social-distancing is being practiced. TB303's post echoes many of the things I've heard from these medical providers.

One doctor explained that not everyone reacts the same to this virus. She said the misconception is fatalities are only occurring with elderly people or people with other medical conditions. It can kill based upon a person's individual immune response. She compared it to bee stings. Not everyone is allergic to bee stings. They do hurt anyone who is stung but, in some, the immune response is so strong that it can be fatal. This virus affects the lungs in some people so severely that the alveoli (I had to look up that word) are no longer able to transfer oxygen into the person's blood. Prolonged low blood oxygen (hypoxia) causes organ damage...brain, kidneys, heart, liver. Some people might have only mild symptoms while others may suffer severe symptoms, like a bee sting. Chest pain and shortness of breath are indications you should seek medical attention immediately. There is no cure, only management of the symptoms until the infection has run its course.

We can wash our hands and not touch our faces but when sick people don't self-isolate, this is how the virus is spread.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy1D3d1FBcw

I was told this morning that a vaccine has already begun human trials in the US which is a record (65 days, was mentioned. Even so, a vaccine won't be widely available for many months. If you're inclined to politics, you'll either give credit or blame to Trump (or some other politician) for either of these and you'll be foolish for doing so. Please stop!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimB » 17 Mar 2020, 18:49

UNTIL someone finds out how this virus started, a positive way of testing for this virus, and CURE for this virus ..... THERE WILL BE MORE THISES AND THATS, EVEN FAKE, INFORMATION GOING AROUND, MAINLY FROM THE NEWS MEDIA.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimB » 17 Mar 2020, 21:40

Just a little laugh about this virus .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezES2MzElBA
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimB » 18 Mar 2020, 01:40

FRESH OFF the Yahoo! NEWS .... CORONAVIRUS CASES IN ALL U.S. STATES .....

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /23953416/
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 18 Mar 2020, 03:38

For all the people who are thinking "we should have done more"...just remember that nobody from the media to the Dems to the GOP gave a fuck when Obama waited until the H1N1 pig flu death toll in the USA hit 1,000 in October 2009 (SIX MONTHS after the first U.S. case, btw) before he finally declared a national emergency. Trump did the national emergency declaration when the death toll was under 100 and also there had never been a travel ban on other countries related to a pandemic ever done in U.S. history and it was the first mandatory quarantine of Americans (everyone returning from China since late January) since the JFK presidency in the early 1960s.

If we had done the new statewide/city-wide extreme measures 2 or 3 weeks ago the whole country would have laughed and ignored the emergency orders and say, "Why are you trying to scare us? We need to do Super Tuesday primary elections and go to Biden and Sanders rallies."

Just like Dr. Deborah Birx said today at the press conference she really hopes this crash course-style awareness of viral pandemics gets us more involved in the future to try to curtail annual regular flu that kills many Americans per year as well as more HIV awareness (HIV is in fact a viral pandemic).

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 18 Mar 2020, 04:15

fastmandan88 wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 03:38
For all the people who are thinking "we should have done more"...just remember that nobody from the media to the Dems to the GOP gave a fuck when Obama waited until the H1N1 pig flu death toll in the USA hit 1,000 in October 2009 (SIX MONTHS after the first U.S. case, btw) before he finally declared a national emergency. Trump did the national emergency declaration when the death toll was under 100 and also there had never been a travel ban on other countries related to a pandemic ever done in U.S. history and it was the first mandatory quarantine of Americans (everyone returning from China since late January) since the JFK presidency in the early 1960s.

If we had done the new statewide/city-wide extreme measures 2 or 3 weeks ago the whole country would have laughed and ignored the emergency orders and say, "Why are you trying to scare us? We need to do Super Tuesday primary elections and go to Biden and Sanders rallies."

Just like Dr. Deborah Birx said today at the press conference she really hopes this crash course-style awareness of viral pandemics gets us more involved in the future to try to curtail annual regular flu that kills many Americans per year as well as more HIV awareness (HIV is in fact a viral pandemic).
I'm beating my head against the wall when I say this for the last time

DO NOT COMPARE THIS TO THE OTHER VIRUSES LIKE H1N1, THEY ARE NOT COMPARABLE!!!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 18 Mar 2020, 04:25

crank wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 17:36
Here's the thing about the political nature of this situation... it isn't political unless you make it political. Little could be done sooner because the virus has/had not yet arrived in most areas of the country. This virus has to run its course, as I'm given to understand. Going on lock-down would not have stopped the virus. The aim of this 'social distancing' and current restrictions is to flatten out the peak infections. That is, instead of having everyone get sick all at once and overwhelm medical resources, the infection is slowed but the pandemic (the crisis) lasts longer.

Go ahead! Make it political if you must. If Trump had told everyone to panic, he would have been criticized for inciting panic. When has a president EVER told the citizens of the United States to panic? When would that ever be a good idea? Remember the famous FDR quote, “The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself”? The thing about politics is this... if this or any President makes any decision about anything, about half of the people looking on will criticize that decision. "Don't panic..." results in critics saying he didn't know what he was talking about and wrongly downplayed it. When he banned travel from Europe, critics insisted it was racist. If he had locked down the country as is being done in Italy, he would have been called a dictator abusing his power. If you're inclined to make it political, you will find something. Please stop. It is not productive or helpful.

I have clients who are healthcare providers. They have explained the goals and timing of the current actions and made recommendations to me to avoid making people sick while allowing us to continue earning a living. There are currently NO CONFIRMED CASES in the area where I live but there will be soon despite the fact schools have closed, large gatherings are banned and social-distancing is being practiced. TB303's post echoes many of the things I've heard from these medical providers.

One doctor explained that not everyone reacts the same to this virus. She said the misconception is fatalities are only occurring with elderly people or people with other medical conditions. It can kill based upon a person's individual immune response. She compared it to bee stings. Not everyone is allergic to bee stings. They do hurt anyone who is stung but, in some, the immune response is so strong that it can be fatal. This virus affects the lungs in some people so severely that the alveoli (I had to look up that word) are no longer able to transfer oxygen into the person's blood. Prolonged low blood oxygen (hypoxia) causes organ damage...brain, kidneys, heart, liver. Some people might have only mild symptoms while others may suffer severe symptoms, like a bee sting. Chest pain and shortness of breath are indications you should seek medical attention immediately. There is no cure, only management of the symptoms until the infection has run its course.

We can wash our hands and not touch our faces but when sick people don't self-isolate, this is how the virus is spread.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy1D3d1FBcw

I was told this morning that a vaccine has already begun human trials in the US which is a record (65 days, was mentioned. Even so, a vaccine won't be widely available for many months. If you're inclined to politics, you'll either give credit or blame to Trump (or some other politician) for either of these and you'll be foolish for doing so. Please stop!
While I agree we don't know how much he could have prevented this, my problem with him has to do with his decisions. To be clear of my political leanings, I lean left BUT I have voted R before and will again as I look at each race individually and dont blindly vote for party. I'll likely vote Jill Stein for President since I dont like Biden or Trump.

Here are things he could have done better:

1. Asking WHO for kits and cutting through red tape as far as making our own goes - Not having kits will cost lives as people will infect other people and some of those people will die because of that decision.

2. Not made meetings about it classified so public was more aware of it - This is just stupid as people should have been made aware far sooner, not like keeping it a secret will make it go away.

3. Not made them classified so actual experts would be allowed to speak, due to classification they were not allowed to. - This is beyond stupid also. Making the meeting classified made it so experts in the field could not offer their advice which likely would have saved many lives.

4. Not defund the pandemic team in 2018 so you can give billionaires a tax cut - hard to defend that one, costs more lives

5. Constantly downplaying the severity of it by calling it fake news, a hoax, and telling America it would solve itself and not to worry about it. - I get he wanted stock market to be OK but trying to hide something from the American public isn't exactly going to put confidence into the market.

6. Listened to the experts, time and time again and not think he knows better than them. - this happened throughout the process, but he did listen to his son in law Jared Kushner who told him it was no big deal. You know the same son in law who says he can solve the middle east problem and has no real scientific background.

Regardless of the side of the aisle you are on, you have to admit those are all bad things.

Those are my issues with it, plus the whole law where 500+ employee companies are exempt is B.S. but both sides take money from billionaires and don't give a fuck about us so it is what it is.

Side note: Also remember just because there is not anyone showing symptoms or testing positive does not mean 100s if not 1000s of people in your area have it right now.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 18 Mar 2020, 05:12

I am simply pointing out that previous presidents with pandemics that killed a bunch of people were so laissez faire and hands off. I'm not criticizing Presidents Obama (H1N1 - 15,000 dead Americans), LBJ (Hong Kong flu - 70,000 dead Americans), and Eisenhower (Asian flu - 100,000 dead Americans) or other presidents. Facts are facts. All other presidents have gotten a pass for being "hands off" while in the Twitter world of 2020 everyone wants everything done right now or a month ago even though one month ago they didn't care about the problem and will retcon history and pretend they have always been worried about the coronavirus (remember how "racist" the Chinese ban and the quarantine of returning Americans and green card immigrants was just a few weeks ago?).

And again why did the Dems not cancel the primaries or the huge rallies with hundreds or thousands of people a month ago if they really believed this is a huge problem? Nobody seems to know or want to answer that question.

Btw, H1N1 was considered a much bigger crisis by experts than the one now because it was killing a lot of young people under the age of 30 compared to other flu pandemics. The coronavirus is killing predominantly 70+ year old people and young people seem to have an immunity to it in the form of it is like a minor cold for them. It's why you see all the bored high school and college students partying and not abiding by the new restaurant/bar regulations. Did you see Bourbon Street before Monday? Bunch of under-30-year-old idiots getting drunk like usual and flipping off the police when the police asked them to leave. An innocent bystander was killed by a car during that shitshow in Bourbon Street on Sunday. The Bourbon Street disaster was why the other cities and states acted accordingly and shut down all the bars and only take out at restaurants.

Regarding that long laundry list...SMDH...bunch of literal fake news.

"Muh Google is not going to make a website" Yeah. Google the website is not making it. Alphabet, formerly known as Google, is going to make it. And the Google/Alphabet leaders confirmed that they are making a website/app.

"Muh the WHO gave test kits but the USA rejected it." The WHO test kits are less than 50% accurate! It didn't pass the FDA or CDC test of standards and it is even called an experimental test by the people who created it.

"Muh 2018 defunded a CDC plan." This plan was never proposed before 2018 and it never ever existed in U.S. history. How can you defund something when it didn't exist before? And considering that the CDC has failed TWICE in making test kits (they were either contaminated or they were testing for the wrong virus) is it really that bad to have no confidence in the so-called "experts" at the CDC?

"Muh hoax." Yeah the hoax is exactly the Dems making up a bunch of bullshit and lies like the "Google-gate", "WHO test kits-gate" and "2018 defunding-gate". If he thought it was a hoax in January then why did he do the travel ban on China? The same media and Dems a month ago called him a "racist" for the travel ban and now pretend they never called him that.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by bangs-cutter » 18 Mar 2020, 05:37

Unsurprisingly, this thread has turned American-centric and into a political mud-slinging.

I'm pretty sure Europeans on this forum are thinking:

"You Americans have no idea what's coming."

Anyway, back to something more objective about covid-19 and the pandemic.

It seems a lot of the general population and those in authority are afraid to implement drastic measures. Many don't quite grasp that that transmission occurs at an exponential rate, if people still carry on living like normal, and no measures are taken to slow its spread.

Our little minds are not used to thinking of things with exponential growth. Linear growth is something more instinctive from our every day experiences. We turn on the water tap, and water fills up the jug at a linear rate. We drive at a constant speed on the road, and the distance travelled varies linearly. Time passes linearly. Probably the closest experience to exponential growth is compound interest on our bank savings. But even then, the growth rate is so tiny over time, that we don't notice it immediately. It's just not intuitive for us to think exponentially, where the more you have of something, the greater the rate of its growth.

But in pandemics, exponential growth is the reality. In New South Wales, Australia, the numbers grow tenfold every fortnight.

The main concern is not actually "IF" the pandemic sweeps across, but "HOW" it will do so. That's why we need to implement social distancing and restrict movement. This is to slow down the spread, so that infection cases are spread out over a longer time, rather than spike. Hospital resources are limited, so if we spread out the cases that require treatment, it enables more to be treated.

An uncontrolled exponential spike is what happened in Wuhan and Italy, where hospital resources are overwhelmed. China is able to build new hospitals from scratch in 1 - 2 weeks, but Italy does not have the means to do this. As a result, Italian medical staff are forced to make the difficult decision of choosing who to save, and who to just let die.

Where I reside now, it was just announced today that the government has new rules on public gathering. Not more than 100, and they discourage unnecessary gatherings and human contact.

In a pandemic, everyone needs to have communal mentality, rather than being selfish. You might be fine, but your selfish actions might cause the disease to spread to someone who might die from it; usually the seniors and those with health issues.

The covid-19 virus is truly contagious on an unprecedented scale. Part of it is due to its very long incubation stage. A person might have the virus for 2 weeks without showing any symptoms, but infect people around them during that time, and they are unaware of it.

According to one health expert, there is really one simple rule to follow to help contain this pandemic:

"Imagine you are already infected, and change your behaviour so as to prevent transmitting it to others."

Practical things:

- wash hands with soap regularly, especially after touching things in public
- keep distance of about 1 - 2 metres away from people in public
- if you cough or sneeze, do it into your inner elbows or use a tissue, to prevent spread of droplets
- stay at home, minimise human interaction as much as possible
- if you travel from a place with known outbreak, quarantine yourself for 2 weeks
- if you develop symptoms, DO NOT go to the clinic, or you may infect others. call first and ask for further instructions

East Asian countries have had similar outbreaks before, and have learnt how to deal with it, at both the authority and individual citizen level. We in the West really need to learn from their experience.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 18 Mar 2020, 08:49

Fastman - IDGAF about what happened in the past (more than 3 months), I really don't. I care about what is happening right now, not what Obama did, not what previous Presidents did, none of that shit matters to me. What pisses me off to be honest about todays political culture is people who are extreme ends of both sides can't criticize people on "their team", Democrats are guilty of this also. Who cares what party the person is, if they are in charge of millions of lives, you should criticize them when they do stupid shit and praise them when they do good.

What matters is getting good info out to people to slow this down and clearly you keep trying to compare this to other previous viruses so please do me a favor and read this, I cut and pasted it from the guys fb page as it will help you understand this a bit more.

[Written by Jason Warner]

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leaves me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “overhyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it’s a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know.

As you would expect, I am data-driven and fact-based.

Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world’s fastest-growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google, I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to zero.

I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.

Now that I’ve gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.

ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”

SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE — THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:

I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get-togethers. No playdates. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It’s difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16-year-old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can’t attend the youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private schools. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create a hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.

THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI-FACETED:

1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society, we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s. Triage tents are already going up in the parking lots at many hospitals close to the epicenters in the United States.

2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today.

As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.) [updated as of 3/14 France is now on lockdown mandated by the government]. Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is a moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week, the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases). [Update as of 3/15/20 — I’ve been sent more research that may add clarity to the ACTUAL cases vs CONFIRMED cases and will update this post with any conclusions]

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.
The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.
The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks… the shortage of ventilators.

ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1–2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on…

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won’t really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals. [update as of 3/15/20 — see the comments section below for an update from a staff member at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland, WA]

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.

YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):

To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.
THIS PART IS IMPORTANT: Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals. There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.
These numbers you just calculated are the Big Problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don’t immediately begin social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.

COUNTRIES AND CITIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE.

And by medical care I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on in a tent in the hospital parking lot by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY medical care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage guidelines based on success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn’t receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start social distancing today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update as of 3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn’t seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an “order of magnitude” means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it’s an order of magnitude greater.

Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: https://externalmediasite.partners.org/ ... e5ab4b4da5…) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

This math is familiar if you did the exercise above. If not, go up and do the math exercise. The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).
1.5 million hospitalizations is way more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But many patients (5%) with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care beds. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. [update as of 3/15/20 now France has done the same lockdown]. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See the study from last month: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... entilatorA
The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require hospital care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators, beds, and ICU beds in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today). This increases the mortality rate significantly.

BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from original writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:

If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require hospitalization. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is “two squared”.
2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.
This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It’s why they say a “post goes viral”.

SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:

Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.
This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.
The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

Many people have suggested they want to support local restaurants and other businesses, who have seen sales drop by 50–90%. Stopping by and visiting them won’t save them. What will save them is social distancing and what you do after the pandemic is over. If you are concerned, call them and buy a gift certificate over the phone.

START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by mercury22 » 18 Mar 2020, 14:26

Sad about the hysteria!!! In South Korea they did not isolate anyone except those who were sick. They were #4 on the list & within a month everything has settled down there quickly & is on the upswing of health much more quickly than any nation! Keeping people isolated only causes these things to get worse. For the aged seniors & those with compromised health situations it is good to stay home & be wise. However, people need to get out in the fresh air & like the old days allow the cleansing of our systems that God has given us. Instead, because of the over hyped media hysteria in a political year we have all the far left media doomsday predictions that is leading to more issues. We have to stop being like communist China or socialized medicine countries like Italy & Spain, turning to the S. Korean model...the American model of the past of only quarantining those who are sick!!!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by crank » 18 Mar 2020, 15:04

mercury22 wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 14:26
Sad about the hysteria!!! In South Korea they did not isolate anyone except those who were sick. They were #4 on the list & within a month everything has settled down there quickly & is on the upswing of health much more quickly than any nation! Keeping people isolated only causes these things to get worse. For the aged seniors & those with compromised health situations it is good to stay home & be wise. However, people need to get out in the fresh air & like the old days allow the cleansing of our systems that God has given us. Instead, because of the over hyped media hysteria in a political year we have all the far left media doomsday predictions that is leading to more issues. We have to stop being like communist China or socialized medicine countries like Italy & Spain, turning to the S. Korean model...the American model of the past of only quarantining those who are sick!!!
A small portion of what you wrote is correct. The rest is opinion.

The correct part... If we place no restrictions on anyone as you say they did in S. Korea, you're correct...this will be over much more quickly. Everyone will get sick together and the pandemic will end more quickly.

The impact... More people will die if everyone gets sick at one time because no isolation efforts were made (like you say they did in S. Korea) and then it will be over. The reason more will die is because there literally are not enough hospital beds, ventilators and healthcare professionals to care for that many people simultaneously. The reasoning behind isolation and the restrictions is to spread out the infections to ensure fewer people are ill at the same time. The downside to this 'hysteria' is the pandemic lasts longer.

It's a real virus. It is actually killing people, not just old or sick people. Denials and debates about how bad it really is or is not, how many people it will or will not kill, blaming media and/or the other political party will not make it better and I certainly disagree that getting fresh air so God can cleanse our systems will help.

Please use good sense.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by bangs-cutter » 18 Mar 2020, 15:13

In addition, the reason for the 14 days quarantine period, is because that is the maximum incubation period of the virus before symptom shows.

This way, after the 14 days have ended, we can identify those who are infected (with symptoms showing). Otherwise, there is no way to tell who is infected or not, since it is impractical and impossible to test every single person.
It's not "just" a bang cut! I'm a sucker for bang chops!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by TB303 » 18 Mar 2020, 15:42

Kensrs - your information about the early kit availability is incorrect. The early kits available were yielding a lot of false positives for Coronavirus and other similar viruses. The false positives would have been a real lightning rod for public fear. The tests were corrected about a week after the first centralized CDC developed kits showed errors. All of the early kits were sent to one central CDC lab because there are only a few labs nationwide with the same type of lab equipment, and they wanted to be consistent in analysis. Having multiple labs analyzing a new test adds noise to the findings.

At the same time Roche and Thermo Fisher were developing screening kits. An EUA (Emergency Authorization) was put in place to fast track the FDA approval process. They were approved last week. The Roche kit uses a widely used lab equipment to analyze results. Each lab can analyze 4000 tests a day (37 labs have this as far as I know) so 140k results daily from the newly approved Roche kit alone.

The development, testing and approvals of the screening kits was done prudently and quickly.

There is no positive in rushing out unproven or faulty kits.

Anyone banging on a delayed kit incompetence is doing so either 1) with incomplete knowledge, 2) to cause public fear, or 3) politicizing prudent measures that are in place for a reason.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by mercury22 » 18 Mar 2020, 18:10

Crank...I will not argue with you, as most of what I sad is fact...I do not get my info from social media, but from professionals!!! I have been in contact with national leaders & know that the S. Korean model is real. Not many will die from this virus because of the closing of borders. Also in the news conferences they are trying to figure out how the Korean model is working & how it can work for us! We are shutting things down because of political ramifications by the liberal media. In S. Korea they do not have the hype from the media, with common sense care like we do with the flu & any other infectious virus...again, the numbers are extremely low compared to the flu this season at over 20,000 deaths!!! We have over a 100 deaths (1 is too many to me) & there will be more as there is in cancer, accidents or like the 21 yr old Spanish coach who died of the virus...he had leukemia! So they will count it as a CV-19 death, when in fact this one of very very few died from the virus. Really, he died from a weakened system, that if he got the flu or another illness he would have died too. Good old hand washing removes the right germs (better than antibacterial soap/wipes & does not compromise the immune systems of it's good bacteria), not all the good bacteria that we need! One can believe the overhyped media sensationalism or the trashing of our medical community, but many have been upset with the over the top hype that is incorrect!!!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by crank » 18 Mar 2020, 18:24

We have officially decided to the salon and cancelled appointments until further notice. This is a tough thing for the self-employed, independent stylists who rent their chairs here because the salon is their only source of income...food, shelter, healthcare, everything. I'm fortunate to have enough resources and other income to get me through this. Some of these girls are single parents without much to carry them through.

We decided after asking/pleading with guests in emails and text appointment confirmations to not come to the salon if they are sick and to not bring their children to the salon. In spite of the pleas, people are showing up with snotty-nosed, coughing, sneezing kids who obviously are not following hand-hygiene guidance and defending their choice to bring them because they don't have school. Further, an obviously sick guest literally sneezed over the front counter and on our receptionist.

This is not to suggest she will immediately die from getting sneezed upon. We're not being hysterical in our decision. We decided because the community guidance to the entire community from healthcare professionals, government and US has been crystal clear..."If you're sick, stay home!"

Since people are not following the common-sense guidance and seem to have no problem putting us at risk, we, in turn, are placing other guests at risk by staying open and potentially exposing them too. We care even if some don't seem to care. Maybe we'll open again in a couple of weeks but there is a very good chance we won't. We composed an ANGRY social media posting during our meeting laced with obscenities and insults then promptly tossed it in the trash. If nothing else, the biting sarcasm was good therapy. :)

Are we being hysterical or responsible? I guess we'll see if any of us become sick within the next two weeks then proceed from there.
Last edited by crank on 18 Mar 2020, 18:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by klaatu48 » 18 Mar 2020, 18:30

crank wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 18:24

Are we being hysterical or responsible? I guess we'll see if any of us become sick within the next two weeks then proceed from there.
This is the rub -- if fewer than expected people get sick, everyone will say we were being hysterical.

No! Exactly the opposite -- the number of cases will have been kept down because we were responsible. If everything is done right and we have the best of luck, the only outcome is that people will think these directives went too far. (Like how everyone remembers the Y2K warnings as hysteria, when really they prompted the problems to be fixed before they wreaked havoc.)

I sent my company's CEO a thank you note this morning for letting us work from home. Some bosses aren't putting their employees' (and society's) health first. I'm lucky to work for someone who does.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 18 Mar 2020, 20:28


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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 18 Mar 2020, 20:30


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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by viper74 » 18 Mar 2020, 20:44

Update from the Netherlands, current death toll 58 people so far still older people with multiple medical problems before they got corona. 346 new case brings the total to 2051. In parliament our secretary of health collapsed during hearings in parliament. He is doing fine now, he was exhausted and probably stressed out. The herd strategy the PM told us 2 days ago was a bit premature. Efforts are still made to flatten the peak to prevent our medical services collapsing. Main problem is still people stockpiling food. Specially elderly people and emergency services people when they finish there shift. Initiatives are starting to help these people get there food and other stuff. So far not a total lockdown. First effects op current policies should be clear next week. Larger stores are closing down, Ikea is closed and a lot other companies. Most restaurants are trying to start food delivery services to survive although the government is starting support programs.

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