Coronavirus Thread

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TB303
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by TB303 » 08 May 2020, 19:05

Hey Kensrs I will. I believe Scientific American is a trusted intellectual publication.

I have been reading Lancet, CDC, FDA journals all along.

I am putting the numbers into a perspective. When the media continues to sensationalize this virus I think it is important to put it into contextual terms, such as H1N1 and the flu, both other viruses.

Keep in mind, the flu continues to be poo-pooed as a comparison. I find that intellectually dishonest. The flu and human beings have had over 20,000 yrs for the species to develop herd immunity, and it still hasn't. In the USA alone it infects millions and kills 40-100k a year. Still no rebuttals to H1N1 in the press either. 60,000,000 in the USA infected, over 20,000 confirmed deaths.

My answer to your question was no. We will see the number of infected rise with more available testing, and reliable anti-body testing coming online, but with it the mortality % continues to decline to levels approaching the flu and H1N1.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 08 May 2020, 19:24

TB303 wrote:
08 May 2020, 19:05
Hey Kensrs I will. I believe Scientific American is a trusted intellectual publication.

I have been reading Lancet, CDC, FDA journals all along.

I am putting the numbers into a perspective. When the media continues to sensationalize this virus I think it is important to put it into contextual terms, such as H1N1 and the flu, both other viruses.

Keep in mind, the flu continues to be poo-pooed as a comparison. I find that intellectually dishonest. The flu and human beings have had over 20,000 yrs for the species to develop herd immunity, and it still hasn't. In the USA alone it infects millions and kills 40-100k a year. Still no rebuttals to H1N1 in the press either. 60,000,000 in the USA infected, over 20,000 confirmed deaths.

My answer to your question was no. We will see the number of infected rise with more available testing, and reliable anti-body testing coming online, but with it the mortality % continues to decline to levels approaching the flu and H1N1.
You may want to look at death totals in USA for past 14 days, around 1000 last week to over 2k this week.
Social distancing works.
We have over 20k confirmed dead and less than 60m infected, if we had same death rate and 60m infected, death rate would be higher.
In the end I think we will just have to ride the waves of this until 60-70% have had it and we essentially have a herd mentality.
Might take 18 months.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by sdnewlf » 08 May 2020, 19:28

Yah, read the article. This is about 50x deadlier than the flu, and it makes the nice point that the flu deaths are actually "Baked" higher than they actually are. I read those journals too. This is my life's work.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by Sijji22 » 09 May 2020, 01:47

I'm incredibly angry that the UK and US govts have chosen herd immunity over eradication. People can get re-infected with different strains of COVID so how much is the herd immunity gonna be worth anyway?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by TB303 » 09 May 2020, 02:06

First thing to note is this is in the Opinion section. It is not Scientific Journal fact, it is an opinion. Putting it in Scientific American makes it no less an opinion.

'The big premise':
"In early April, as social distancing measures began to succeed in flattening the curve in some parts of the country, an influential forecasting model revised the number of American deaths from coronavirus that it was projecting by summer downward to 60,400, and some people again began making comparisons to the flu, arguing that, if this will ultimately be no worse than a bad flu season, we should open the country up for business again."

WRONG and WRONG. This opinion doesn't account for the shock and fear the media spread with early models casting projections for '1 million to 250k' in Corona deaths.... the original projections are not noted, as usual. Downgrading from 1 million to 60k is quite an adjustment. My original forecast for was about 100k deaths.

As for 'flattening the curve': 60% of 'Coronavirus deaths' in NY happened to quarantined people. Ooops. I guess that is not in the national news either. To further skew those numbers in upstate NY 75% of deaths are attributed to a handful of senior communities who were not allowed to move seniors with COVID-19 to a hospital for proper treatment with a ventilator. This was by executive order by Governor Cuomo. These seniors, often lifelong New Yorkers, were isolated without respirators or family allowance to visit them, and died a lonely miserable death due to the executive orders of the governor. If these seniors had been allowed the health care they deserved many of them may not have died.

But hey numbers in NY, got to spread the fear!

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 09 May 2020, 06:15

How the hell are you supposed to "eradicate" this virus? We can't even eradicate HIV and other bad viruses yet we're supposed to shut down for 20 years until all 7 billion people in the world can get tested for the coronavirus 3 times per day?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fascinatedcoward » 09 May 2020, 06:32

.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimB » 11 May 2020, 23:27

LET'S HAVE A CHECK OF EVERYONE .....

I AM DOING WELL AND HAVE BEEN TESTED TWICE AND THE RESULTS WERE NEGATIVE BOTH TIMES ......
A woman looks great with short hair or a shaved head .....

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by artibus » 11 May 2020, 23:44

JimB wrote:
11 May 2020, 23:27
LET'S HAVE A CHECK OF EVERYONE .....

I AM DOING WELL AND HAVE BEEN TESTED TWICE AND THE RESULTS WERE NEGATIVE BOTH TIMES ......
Glad to hear that you're doing well. Same here.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 12 May 2020, 00:59

TB303 wrote:
09 May 2020, 02:06
First thing to note is this is in the Opinion section. It is not Scientific Journal fact, it is an opinion. Putting it in Scientific American makes it no less an opinion.

'The big premise':
"In early April, as social distancing measures began to succeed in flattening the curve in some parts of the country, an influential forecasting model revised the number of American deaths from coronavirus that it was projecting by summer downward to 60,400, and some people again began making comparisons to the flu, arguing that, if this will ultimately be no worse than a bad flu season, we should open the country up for business again."

WRONG and WRONG. This opinion doesn't account for the shock and fear the media spread with early models casting projections for '1 million to 250k' in Corona deaths.... the original projections are not noted, as usual. Downgrading from 1 million to 60k is quite an adjustment. My original forecast for was about 100k deaths.

As for 'flattening the curve': 60% of 'Coronavirus deaths' in NY happened to quarantined people. Ooops. I guess that is not in the national news either. To further skew those numbers in upstate NY 75% of deaths are attributed to a handful of senior communities who were not allowed to move seniors with COVID-19 to a hospital for proper treatment with a ventilator. This was by executive order by Governor Cuomo. These seniors, often lifelong New Yorkers, were isolated without respirators or family allowance to visit them, and died a lonely miserable death due to the executive orders of the governor. If these seniors had been allowed the health care they deserved many of them may not have died.

But hey numbers in NY, got to spread the fear!
The 1mil is still possible if they don't keep practicing social distancing.
Also, we are at 80k now and around 2k dying per day, and Trumps own internal numbers show around 3k dying in June, so we will be well over 100k in early June and we still got 7 months to go and many predict the fall to be even worse. So we may still hit 300k even with social distancing and slow re-open, what would it be without social distancing and they just let it run its course?

Will be interesting to see how it ends but my guess is they just open and close over and over until we get to 60-70% infected and then open up faster as the spread slows down.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 23 May 2020, 07:31

You guys would be scared shitless if you knew what heads of states were saying. Roomate is dealing in PPE, he works directly with mfg on selling large numbers of face masks 3M N95'S and KN95s, think smallest he does is 100k and largest deal he is working on is 10m units. I help him out when I can giving him leads but it's his deal and I am focused on my businesses but I hear lot of the phone calls and know a lot of the same people from our social circle out here.

As a result of this type of work he deals with a lot of decision makers from various states and different organizations and they are preparing for FAR WORST than what is being reported on TV. Some are telling him 1m+ deaths in the USA by the time this is over which is crazy but when you think about it, makes sense. Right now we are at about 1.5m people who tested positive out of 328m. They say 25-50% are asymptomatic so lets go with high end. That is only 2.25m, lets double it for the hell of it and say they never got tested, that is still only 4.5m, even if you went with 4x that, it is only 9m. Now they don't think we will develop a vaccine in time and most experts expect us to have to get 60-70% sick before it really slows down, basically the herd mentality you hear about. Lets go with 65% so that is 213m sick. Even at the 9m number we aren't even 5% there and we have 100k deaths. Do the math and it makes sense. People are buying up PPE like crazy for the fall, so if you think this is over, sad news is we are likely according to experts in the medical field and in the gov barely past the opening credits of this movie.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by tat00x » 24 May 2020, 16:52

tat00x wrote:
13 Mar 2020, 19:41
From what I've seen here in Italy (I'm near Venice), until the government decided to put the current limitations (since yesterday) most people continued to live normally without taking much care. Now the situation is being taken very differently from 2 days ago by people but we've spent 2 weeks to understand how big the problem was. All other states now have this advantage, seeing Italy you know what will happen in your country in the following days/weeks and governments should take the necessary precautions learning from our errors.

Just my current opinion
I wrote this 70 days ago. We're returning to normality on these days. Bars and restaurants are opening as I write. We still need to use face masks and practice social distancing but at least we're almost back to normality. I went out for some drinks on Friday evening and it was a bit weird since I didn't sit on a bar since the beginning of March, but it also was so liberating...
Now that some months have passed I think you can clearly see which states took the thing seriously and who didn't. USA, in my opinion, didn't.

Good luck

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 01 Jun 2020, 04:31

They definitely aren't giving a damn about masks and social distancing anymore in all the big cities in the USA.

Holy fucking shit.

It's gonna be a long, hot summer just like in the 1960s.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by klaatu48 » 01 Jun 2020, 05:02

fastmandan88 wrote:
01 Jun 2020, 04:31
They definitely aren't giving a damn about masks and social distancing anymore in all the big cities in the USA.
I've seen people complaining that now that something more interesting is happening, "all of the sudden" the media doesn't care about COVID-19.

And all I can think is, what are the reporters supposed to do? Chastise people for not standing 6 feet apart as they set police cars on fire?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 01 Jun 2020, 05:26

Going to church led to arrests just last week. Now they can burn churches with no repercussions like they did to the St. John's Church in Washington, D.C. (the basement was literally on fire).

Also I noticed that Reddit turned off the Covid-style "stay home" flair right when things got hot on Friday/Saturday. I guess Reddit switched from "worry about Covid" mode to "let's all post photos and videos of the country burning" mode.

Reporters got a lot more shit to worry about than warning people about social distancing and masks. They're getting beat up by a combination of nutty looters and rioters and panicked cops. Even CNN HQ's front lobby was wrecked! Also why are none of these reporters wearing a helmet? They're getting hit hard by all sides. Fucking insanity.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 05 Jun 2020, 07:56

fastmandan88 wrote:
01 Jun 2020, 05:26
Going to church led to arrests just last week. Now they can burn churches with no repercussions like they did to the St. John's Church in Washington, D.C. (the basement was literally on fire).

Also I noticed that Reddit turned off the Covid-style "stay home" flair right when things got hot on Friday/Saturday. I guess Reddit switched from "worry about Covid" mode to "let's all post photos and videos of the country burning" mode.

Reporters got a lot more shit to worry about than warning people about social distancing and masks. They're getting beat up by a combination of nutty looters and rioters and panicked cops. Even CNN HQ's front lobby was wrecked! Also why are none of these reporters wearing a helmet? They're getting hit hard by all sides. Fucking insanity.
I'm pretty sure if they are caught lighting a church on fire they are going to jail. Churches should be treated like all other property though, unless you want to say it's a hate crime which is unlikely since they were likely down to burn anything they could to the ground.

Media will go back to Covid after this stuff passes over. Not much has changed with covid and likely just wont be that strong this summer but with all the protests, who knows now. This fall it will ramp back up regardless.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by fastmandan88 » 05 Jun 2020, 08:48

Ummm, nobody was arrested for church and synagogue fires and vandalism so there were no repercussions, like I said. Kinda impossible to compare the lack of arrests there with actual people getting arrested and fined for going to church.

https://www.whas11.com/mobile/article/n ... 66b430c0ab

And then thousands of people can go watch in person and millions huddled together like sardines in the streets can watch Mr. Floyd's three funerals with no social distancing while countless Americans had to be buried the past 3 months with no funerals and only 2 people in attendance as mandated by police and mayors. Gimme a break.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by d1a8l0 » 06 Jun 2020, 09:08

I work for a contract manufacturer of vaccines, once they have one approved they will start the process unfortunately lab-scale to full production isn't that simple, it can take months to validate the process. Also most vaccines aren't made like pharmaceuticals in such bulk such as a production run of 12 hours can make millions of tablets or 1000s of litres. The biggest vessel I've seen is 5000L and it can take a few days at least for that, luckily though vaccines are diluted for use so 5000L of concentrate can make millions of litres, some use up to 100µl in 1L thats a dilution of 10k (1000µl in 1ml, 1000ml in 1L) some a lot less. Sadly there'll be nothing in this financial year (up to Apr 21). So when it leaves the site it needs to be diluted then filled then dispatched. Start on Monday finish by Wednesday, final analysis means Thursday for release, send from UK to US, lucky to be there by Friday fill over the weekend again analysis send out for use. This will need to be done constantly for months. I believe they are talking about chartered planes for this situation, literally taken from site to plane then over the pond although the first batches from here will be for UK/EU use but the US has manufacturers but population size and density will stretch the capacity to get it out. The UK or EU wouldn't have as much of an issue, Sorry US you're too big and there's a lot of you! saying that NC has a massive biopark so move there.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by kensrs » 15 Jun 2020, 02:38

fastmandan88 wrote:
05 Jun 2020, 08:48
Ummm, nobody was arrested for church and synagogue fires and vandalism so there were no repercussions, like I said. Kinda impossible to compare the lack of arrests there with actual people getting arrested and fined for going to church.

https://www.whas11.com/mobile/article/n ... 66b430c0ab

And then thousands of people can go watch in person and millions huddled together like sardines in the streets can watch Mr. Floyd's three funerals with no social distancing while countless Americans had to be buried the past 3 months with no funerals and only 2 people in attendance as mandated by police and mayors. Gimme a break.
to be fair on last one believe he was buried in TX and if you look at their opening plan you would see that it was just timing. You had a stronger lockdown in place last month than today, so yes in the past less people were to be at funerals vs now.

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